This story has three parts. I have covered India’s COVID-19 vaccination in this part, Part-2 is about donations, and Part-3 is about the testing. The saga of a pandemic is like an action thriller, and it leaves you with a question — are we in safe hands? The answer can be yes or no, depending on how you read my story.
Let us look at the facts around vaccines
- ICMR, which was at the final stages of vaccine (ChAdOX1) discovery in April 2020 along with Oxford, was asked to disband its team. Within a span of few days, ICMR ties up with Bharat Biotech to discover vaccines. The story was not widely published or picked up by the media but it raised eyebrows. Following this, the head of the ICMR’s vaccine team, Gagandeep Kang resigned in July 2020. Though she denied her resignation has any links to the decision to disband her team, the timing of it raises many questions. Why did ICMR dismantle its own team suddenly and did not give any reason? Was it the reason for the resignation of the chief of the research team? I will rather leave it to you to think and connect the dots.
- The government tried to launch this vaccine on 15th August 2020 and even wrote a letter to the CEO of Bharat Biotech (see the link). But it was far too premature and attracted widespread condemnation which dented ICMR’s hard-earned credibility over decades. Was this to make Modi look good or was it to enable the company to gain early market share? The questions are many, answers are fewer. I leave it to the reader’s wisdom.
- Earlier the CEO of Bharat Biotech has confirmed that the vaccine will not come before early 2021 if all goes well. The company has not submitted complete data as it appears, they have not fully completed phase -3, in CEO’s own words. He (CEO of Bharat Biotech) needed one week to provide complete data as of 5-Jan-2021. What gave ICMR the confidence to approve?
- Select Journalists are manufacturing stories. Rajat Sharma of India TV has said 190 countries have ordered the said vaccine which appeared to be fake when alt news (a fake news buster) website conducted the research. Why they are spreading misleading information for this company and under whose behest? What is the motivation? Who is the beneficiary?
- Drug Controller (DGCI) officials were saying vaccines are 110 percent safe. How can something be 110 percent safe? Were they under pressure to declare it safe? If so who is asking? This prompted the CEO of Bharat Biotech, manufacturer of this Covidshield to say it is 200 percent safe. Neither of them appears to be credible as max safety is 100 percent. You cannot go beyond that. Even the safest vaccines developed so far cannot claim that they are 100 percent perfect. The question here is without the data and trials, how can someone claim it to be more than 100 percent safe which itself is an oxymoron? Once again, does the intent here appears to be more to do with sales than safety? So who is the primary beneficiary?
- The CEO of Bharat Biotech wants to produce 70 crore dosage (for almost half the population of India) and called AstraZeneca trials lousy, thereby questioning the entire approval process of both vaccines. Did DGCI approve based on bogus/lousy trials? I leave it to the readers to reimagine and think.
- The experts have questioned the overall process of emergency approvals of the vaccine. Meanwhile, experts have flagged the nod to COVAXIN.
- On 6th Jan 2020, independent activist Saket Gokhale came with a startling discovery that aligns quite well with the apprehensions we all had. As per his finding, Phase-1 trials of Bharat Biotech were registered on the 1st of July 2020, Phase 2 trials by Bharat Biotech were registered on 8th September, 2020. There was a gap of nearly 2 months. Phase 3 of Covaxin trials was registered on 9th November 2020. The duration of completions overlaps with each other and it seems they were running independently with a small sample size for phase 1 and phase 2 (check the links). Phase 1 was to be completed by Mar 2021, Phase 2 was to be completed by Dec 2021, Phase 3 to be completed by Nov 2021(before Phase 2). This aligns to some extent with the previous statements made by the Bharat Biotech CEO earlier. Now, it appears that something has been changing constantly, especially since the target dates were like a moving goal post. Initially dictated as 15th Aug 2020 and then the first week of Jan 2021.
- India’s vaccines were finalized in Jan 2021. By that time many other countries have blocked their orders. Even after decision-making, the procurement was slow. A chart published in Times of India earlier (which unfortunately has now been removed from online search) indicates the following early procurement schedule. I will leave that to the reader to understand whether it was by design or by chance. The subsequent facts are more important to connect the dots.
10. Vaccine scarcity prevented pan-India vaccination and a new outbreak of corona pushed India to go on overdrive. Lack of preparation, inadequate production capability to meet the demand, etc prevented and disrupted the plan completely. Many states ran out of supplies of vaccines.
11. While this was going on, India exported vaccines to other countries. A total of 66 million dosages was exported to countries across the world. 80% of phase-1 procurement of vaccines was funded from PM Cares. Saket Gokhle in his RTI made a discovery that most of the 66 million dosages exported initially were procured at a higher price from vaccine manufactures and were exported at an unknown price. The entire flow and circulation are not known as PM Cares fund is a grey area and allegedly shrouded in mystery.
12. GOI made a deal with Vaccine manufacturers to procure at INR 157 for Phase 2. Suddenly, GoI revised the price of the COVISHIELD vaccine for states to INR 400 and Private Hospitals to 600. The central government will continue to get the vaccine at around 150/-. See Modi govt’s vaccine policy allowing Serum Institute to earn ‘super profits’: Experts.
13. While this is all unfolding, it is believed that European Union has negotiated a price of 1.78 Euros based on the price revealed by Belgian State Secretary for Budget Eva De Bleeker in her tweet. This is approx INR 161 per dosage.
14. While the COVID infections were raising, key stakeholders for decision-making remain focused on election campaigning. Even Kumbh Mela, one of the largest gathering of millions of devotees were allowed, campaigning and electioneering were allowed to progress. Certainly, this made the situation go out of hand while the government relaxed. Was it more of an opportunity instead of a threat? I will leave the reader to decide.
15. On 24th April 2021, the Government of India revised the price of COVAXIN to INR 600/- for states and INR 1200/- for Private Hospitals. This is again a drastic change from the earlier INR 150–250 negotiated price for the central government procurement. Point no 1, 2 above will become particularly interesting to see point no 15. Will there be any change in the shareholding patterns of these companies in the future? This is contrary to the fact that the CEO of one of the companies claimed that it will cost less than a bottle of water. So what changed?
16. Subsequently both COVISHIELD and COVAXIN revised their prices to INR 300 and INR 400 subsequently. Why they then increased the price so much in the first place? Are they playing with the perception of the Indian Citizens? How both proportionately reduced by 25% at the same time? Does that give some indication that pricing and changes are being dictated?
17. While India ran out of vaccines, Prizer who asked for emergency approvals did not get any. Subsequently, they withdrew the application for emergency approvals. This is despite the willingness to sell it without any profit basis. I leave this to your imagination why two vaccines are only allowed when there is so much crisis. Is it to create a crisis and demand where people will not think about the price? That could be one of the many possibilities.
18. Indian Government announced vaccination for 18+ years old from 1st May. There is no capacity to manufacture the two vaccines to meet the demand but still, knowingly this commitment was made. Subsequently, they were not ready for it. Did they not know it or was it some kind of electoral gimmick? I will leave it to the imagination.
19. There are the latest developments in this area. It seems that SII is finding it hard to cope up with domestic and global requirements. They have tried to swallow more than they can chew as per some reports. AstraZeneca as per the scroll report is planning to sue SII for short supply. Meanwhile, the Indian government has prioritized domestic production. This forced Poonawala to move to the UK to set up another plant. Suddenly, the focus and attention of the largest vaccine manufacturer have gone to a different requirement. This is a huge risk the Indian Government did not anticipate in its knee-jerk reactions.
20. The ordering still continues to be a mystery. Only one more vaccine has got approval. The government is now planning to ramp up COVAXIN production when the opposition stepped up the pressure and suggested an approach. They also changed the duration for the second dose to 3–4 months to address the vaccine shortage.
21. On 21nd May 2021, Suresh Jadhav, executive director of Pune-based Serum Institute of India made a startling claim. As per him, Government did not consult his company before expanding the vaccination to other age groups. Hence it appears Government was acting in isolation and making hollow claims to give false hope to people. This is a very serious expose and it also reveals the political priority overshadowed public safety. The worst fears that there has been a sinister plot to take people for a ride cannot be ruled out. While the rest of the world is accelerating in terms of vaccination, India’s vaccination drive is rapidly decelerating as per the data visible to us as of 23-May-2020. States are running out of vaccines.
22. The combined capacity to manufacture both vaccines COVISHIELD and COVAXIN is more than 10 crore dosage (100 Million approx) per month. With this logic, by end of May, a 50 crore dosage may have been produced. The national average of wastage is 6.5%. If we do the Math, it looks something is not adding up for overall numbers. Certainly, Government cannot store or hoard 19 crores of vaccines when the states are struggling with vaccines. This is based on assumption that they are producing vaccines in full capacity due to the demand for vaccines. if not, then we have a different situation on our hands as to why are they not producing when there is so much of a demand and extra capacity available.
23. On 30th May 2021, It was found that BJP MLAs are selling vaccines at higher prices in party offices as per the story published in “the quint”. Does this indicate why vaccines are missing? We may never know.
24. The above issues raised a lot of suspicions. Supreme Court of India intervened and raised questions about the way and manner it was procured, prices were escalated, budgetary provisions were ignored, and the hidden agenda behind the entire scheme of things. The Supreme court asked several questions and called the entire vaccine policy arbitrary and irrational.
25. In a surprise announcement, post supreme court observation, Modi announced a new vaccine policy. On June 8th, Modi declared a free vaccination program for 18 years and above and reserved 25% of the vaccines for private healthcare facilities which will be on the basis of rates fixed per dosage. Whether or not it was connected to the supreme court’s direction of questioning and investigation, we may be wise enough to understand.
26. During his speech for making it free for most, Modi made a lot of factual errors in his speech and it was full of incorrect information. Why would anyone resort to such rampant misinformation? I will leave it to the wisdom of the readers. Read the following reports to understand how he tried he was economical with the truth—
Fact check | History shows India did not lack access to vaccines as claimed by PM Modi,
PM Modi’s Claim on 90% Immunisation Coverage is Misleading,
27. On 16th June 2021, Reuters published a piece of shocking news that the doubling of the gap between COVISHIELD is not backed by scientists. It seems that Government put their own words into their mouth and mislead the nation portraying that it is because of the advisory they received. It is amply clear that they were actually addressing the logistical challenges.
28. In another surprise maneuver on the same day (16-June-2021), Government said that registration of Cowin not needed. This is exactly what the opposition parties have been pointing to due to the digital divide. In addition, the Supreme Court of India asked a pointed question on the same issue. Now, it seems that cornered by both SC and Opposition, they decided to open it for lesser privileged sections as well.
29. As per Media reports, there is an investigation going on in Brazil. See the report — Brazil’s ‘Covaxingate’ Investigation Closes in on Bolsonaro and Bharat Biotech. Looking at some of the facts from 1–28 provided before, can we negate the assumption that such things did not happen in India? I leave that to the wisdom of the readers.
30. Government started misleading people and the public about the availability of vaccines and their preparation. A response against the RTI in July 2021 indicated that the central Government is economical with the truth. NITI Ayog also indicated that Government data is inflated. See Projection of 135 crore Covid vaccine doses more realistic: Government
31. I filed an RTI with the Ministry of Health and Family welfare to understand how they are keeping track of the vaccine productions. To my utter surprise, the RTI was transferred to Central Drug Standard Control Organization to respond. They responded that they do not monitor production. Hence we can make out Government has no idea how many vaccines are produced, distributed, or exported. On what basis then they give vaccination-related commitment is not understood. This appears to be huge fraud and linked to many of the above points. Now link this to missing vaccines observation in point no 22 above.
32. On September 14, 2021, New York Times published a story based on their investigation that ICMR helped Modi to suppress the information related to the second wave of COVID. This resulted in unprecedented tragedy. See As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science
Conclusion
I have presented the dots and indicated connections between them. Transparency is the building block to trust and lack of it will create room for doubt. Certainly, there is something to hide and there are enough indications that point in a particular direction till we get the full clarity. At this point, using pandemics for either profit and politics or both does not go very well with the country.
Further Reading
Please do not miss the curious case of Donations (Part-2) and Testing (Part-3). They are like an Indian version of “La casa de Papel” or Money Heist. I find it to be more interesting than that.
Update History:-
- Dated 6-Jan-2020: Point 8 added on 6-Jan-2021 post-Saket Gokhale’s findings.
- Dated 6-Jan-2021: Point 1 minor factual corrections.
- Point 9–14 added on 24-April-2021
- Point 15 added on 25-April-2021
- Point 16, 17, and 18 added on 1–May–2021
- Point 18,19,20 added and conclusion updated 15-May-2021
- Point 21, 22, 23 added on 30-May-2021.
- Point 24 added on 4-June-2021
- Point 25, 26 added on 12-June-2021
- Point 27, 28 added on 16-June-2021
- Point 29 added on 27-June-2021
- Point 30, 31, 32 added on 21-Sep-2021
